New surveys show a tied contest or a small lead for either candidate, while independent voters appear to be moving toward Democrat James Talarico.
AUSTIN, Texas – The race for Texas’ open U.S. Senate seat is becoming one of the closest and most closely watched elections in the country. Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton will face each other in the November 3 election. No Democrat has won a statewide Texas election since 1994, but recent polls show Talarico running a competitive campaign.
A Texas News Express poll conducted from July 21 through July 24 with a sample size of 1,200 registered voters found the race tied. Talarico and Paxton each received support from 42.4% of respondents. Among independent voters who took part in the survey, 59% leaned toward Talarico. Texas News Express’ poll has a 4% margin of error.
Another poll released July 28 by Texas Public Opinion Research showed Talarico leading Paxton 45% to 40%, with 14% undecided. The group surveyed 1,048 likely voters from July 15 through July 17. The poll had a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.
That result was stronger for Talarico than several earlier surveys. A June University of Texas at Austin poll showed Paxton leading 43% to 42%. A separate New York Times/Siena poll taken in June found the candidates tied at 47%. Together with the Texas News Express results, the surveys suggest that neither candidate has built a steady lead.
Independent voters may become one of the most important groups in the race. The Texas News Express poll found that 59% of independent respondents leaned toward Talarico. The newest Texas Public Opinion Research survey also showed Talarico leading independents 43% to 23%, with 29% undecided. A June University of Texas poll found Talarico ahead among independents, although many had not chosen a candidate.
Among comments from registered republic voters were a dislike of Ken Paxton’s past legal trouble and many said they viewed him as dishonest. Among registered democrat voters, many said the primary reason they dislike Paxton was because they felt he weaponized his position as Texas’ Attorney General and wasted taxpayer money going after issue that were personal to him and political in nature.
Meanwhile, registers voters expressed concern about Talarico’s commitment to a border solution and his ability to bring benefits to Texas.
Support among Republicans has also shifted. In April, only 63% of Republican voters said they would support Paxton in a race against Talarico. After Paxton defeated U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican runoff, his support among Republicans rose to 84% in a June poll. However, some Republican voters remain undecided or open to another candidate.
Recent polls disagree about voters without college degrees. One survey showed Talarico leading that group by nine points. An earlier poll gave Paxton an eight-point lead among the same voters. More polling will be needed to determine whether a real shift is happening.
Hispanic voters are another important part of the contest. Many heavily Hispanic border counties moved toward Republicans during the 2024 presidential election. Talarico is trying to win some of those voters back by focusing on groceries, housing, health care and wages. Paxton is focusing on border security, immigration enforcement and conservative social issues.
Talarico also has a large fundraising advantage. His campaign reported raising $31.6 million during the latest quarter, compared with $9.3 million for Paxton. Talarico later reported having about $21.5 million available, while Paxton had about $7.5 million. That gives Talarico more money for advertising and voter outreach, although Republican groups can spend money to support Paxton.
Paxton’s long record in Texas politics remains both a strength and a risk. Supporters view him as a strong conservative who has fought Democratic administrations over immigration, abortion and other issues. Critics point to his 2023 impeachment and other controversies. Paxton was acquitted in the impeachment trial and has not been convicted of a crime.
The race remains difficult to predict. Talarico appears to be gaining support from independent voters and has a major fundraising advantage. Paxton still benefits from Texas’ long Republican voting history and strong support among conservatives. With polls showing a tie, a small Paxton lead or a small Talarico lead, undecided and independent voters could decide the election.
