New Texas News Express polling shows Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton, while several Republican-leaning congressional districts show signs of movement. Independent voters will decide who wins.
By Robert Renke, Texas News Express
AUSTIN, Texas A new Texas News Express poll shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton by five percentage points in the race for Texas’ open U.S. Senate seat. The survey was conducted from Aug. 27 through Aug. 30 and included 1,250 registered Texas voters who said they plan to vote or are likely to vote in the November general election and has a margin of error of +/- 4%.
The result represents a change from an earlier Texas News Express poll conducted July 21 through July 24. That survey found Talarico and Paxton tied at 42.4% each. The latest poll suggests Talarico has gained ground since then, although polling remains a snapshot of voter opinion rather than a prediction of the final result.
Texas News Express also examined voters in several congressional districts that normally favor Republicans but still contain a large number of Democratic and independent voters. Some of the strongest movement toward Talarico appeared in Texas’ 24th, 10th and 21st congressional districts. All three remain Republican-leaning areas, so the Senate polling does not mean those House districts are expected to change parties. It does suggest that some voters who normally support Republican candidates may be considering Talarico in the Senate race.
We talked to several voters in those districts and they commonly said that while they are registered republicans, they have a hard time voting for someone whom they see as problematic. Andy Burns who lives in Southlake, Texas, a upper income DFW suburb said, “I’m really having a hard time with Ken Paxton, I don’t care what his position is, he just doesn’t seem honest.”
But that sentiment is not universal, Gina Rodgers of Brenham said, “Paxton might have some credibility issues, but he still fights for what we want and I’m just not sure the other guy wants the same thing.”
The Texas News Express findings are somewhat stronger for Talarico than another recent statewide survey. An Overton Insights poll conducted Aug. 24 through Aug. 26 found Talarico at 44.0% and Paxton at 43.4% among likely voters. That poll surveyed 1,167 likely voters and had a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points. When voters who were leaning toward a candidate were included, the race was essentially tied.
Other recent polling has also shown a close race, with most surveys giving Talarico either a small lead or showing the candidates nearly even. The Texas Tribune’s polling tracker says Talarico has generally performed slightly better than Paxton since the May Republican runoff. Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in more than 30 years, which makes the current polling unusual for a state that has been reliably Republican in recent elections.
Money has become one of the biggest differences between the two campaigns. According to the latest Federal Election Commission filings summarized by The Texas Tribune, Talarico has raised about $72 million since the beginning of 2025, compared with about $16.8 million for Paxton. In the most recent quarterly filing, Talarico reported raising $31.6 million, while Paxton raised $9.3 million. Talarico also ended June with $23.3 million in cash available, more than three times Paxton’s total.
Talarico’s fundraising has also come from a different mix of donors. Records show that about 51% of his fundraising came from people who had given less than $200 during the campaign. Paxton has relied more heavily on larger donors, with about 88% of his contributions coming from people who gave more than that amount. Neither campaign has received a large share of its money directly from traditional political action committees.
Paxton is receiving help from Republican groups, but some senior Republicans have openly questioned whether enough money is arriving quickly enough. Sen. John Cornyn, who lost the Republican runoff to Paxton, said he does not plan to use his fundraising network to raise money for Paxton. Cornyn was quoted as saying that Texas can be a “black hole when it comes to campaign cash” and said Paxton “doesn’t raise money.” Cornyn said he will instead focus much of his fundraising work on close Senate races in other states.
Other Republican leaders are pushing President Donald Trump to become more financially involved. Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana said, “We in the Senate don’t have the money budgeted for Texas,” and added that Republicans need help from Trump. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has also said the president and his political operation need to put resources into Texas because the state is too important for Republicans to lose.
Trump has repeatedly endorsed Paxton and traveled to Houston in late August for a Republican National Committee fundraiser. He has also promised to campaign in Texas again. However, as of early September, Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC had not publicly committed a major amount of money directly to Paxton’s race, even though the group has hundreds of millions of dollars available. Paxton has said he expects that support to come.
Republicans still have several advantages. Texas has a long record of voting Republican in statewide races, and national Republican groups have access to large donors. Recent court decisions also allow national parties to coordinate more spending with candidates, which could help Paxton close the financial gap. Democrats have seen strong fundraising in Texas before without winning. Beto O’Rourke raised far more money than Ted Cruz in 2018 and still lost, while Colin Allred outraised Cruz in 2024 but also lost.
Talarico’s campaign, however, now has enough money to advertise across Texas’ expensive media markets and continue organizing in areas that Democrats often struggle to win. His campaign has already launched multimillion-dollar advertising efforts focused heavily on affordability. Paxton and Republican groups are responding with their own ads, including attacks on Talarico’s policies and positions.
The Texas News Express poll suggests the race may now be decided by voters who do not strongly identify with either party, along with Republicans willing to consider a Democratic candidate. The movement seen in districts such as Texas 24, Texas 10 and Texas 21 will be worth watching because statewide candidates do not need to win those Republican areas to benefit. Even reducing the normal Republican margin in those districts could matter in a close statewide race.
With about two months remaining before Election Day, neither campaign can consider the race settled. Talarico currently has the stronger fundraising position and leads in the latest Texas News Express poll. Paxton still has Texas’ Republican history, Trump’s endorsement and the possibility of major outside spending on his side. The next several weeks will show whether Talarico’s five-point advantage is the beginning of a larger shift or another temporary move in a race that has remained close throughout the summer.
