Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is now trying to do what few Texas Republicans have had to seriously worry about in recent decades: fight a competitive U.S. Senate race in a state his party has long controlled.
Paxton won the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate after defeating longtime incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the May 26 Republican runoff, ending Cornyn’s more than two decades in the Senate and setting up a November race against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico of Austin.
The victory was a major political comeback moment for Paxton, who has spent years battling legal and ethical controversies while maintaining strong support among Texas conservatives and the Republican grassroots. It also marked a sharp turn for the Texas GOP, replacing Cornyn — a veteran senator closely associated with the party’s older establishment wing — with one of the state’s most aggressive Trump-aligned figures.
Paxton’s path to the nomination was powered by conservative voters who saw him as a fighter against the Biden administration, Democratic-led cities, federal agencies and what he often describes as liberal overreach. As attorney general, Paxton has made national headlines by repeatedly suing the federal government, challenging immigration policies, environmental rules, voting policies and other Democratic priorities.
His supporters argue that record is exactly why he belongs in the U.S. Senate. To them, Paxton is not a conventional politician, but a combative conservative willing to take on powerful institutions. His campaign has leaned into that image, presenting him as a candidate who would bring Texas-style resistance to Washington.
But the same profile that helped Paxton win the Republican primary may also create challenges in the general election.
Paxton remains a polarizing figure. He was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on accusations that included abuse of office and bribery, then acquitted by the Texas Senate. He also faced a long-running securities fraud case that ended without a trial after an agreement that included restitution, community service and legal ethics education. A federal corruption investigation also ended without charges.
Republicans who backed Cornyn warned during the primary that Paxton’s controversies could give Democrats their best opening in a Texas Senate race in years. Democrats are already making that argument, casting Paxton as ethically damaged and too focused on partisan fights.
Talarico, the Democratic nominee, is expected to campaign on government accountability, affordability, public education and political reform. He has also raised significant money, giving Democrats reason to believe they can at least force Republicans to spend heavily in a state that is usually considered safely red in Senate races.
Still, Paxton begins the general election with a major advantage: Texas remains a Republican-leaning state. No Democrat has won a U.S. Senate race in Texas since 1988, and Republicans continue to hold every statewide elected office. For Paxton, the central strategy will likely be to nationalize the race — tying Talarico to President Biden’s party, progressive Democrats, border policy, inflation concerns and cultural issues that energize Republican voters.
Talarico’s challenge is different. He must convince enough independents, moderate Republicans and younger voters that Paxton’s controversies outweigh the state’s Republican instincts. Democrats also need strong turnout in Houston, Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, El Paso and the fast-growing suburbs that have become more politically competitive over the last decade.
The race could become one of the most watched Senate contests in the country. For Republicans, losing Texas would be a political earthquake and could threaten control of the Senate. For Democrats, even making the race close would be evidence that Texas is moving deeper into battleground territory.
Paxton’s supporters see his nomination as proof that the Republican base wants fighters, not dealmakers. His critics see it as a risky bet on a candidate whose personal and legal history may follow him into November.
Either way, the Texas Senate race is no longer just a routine Republican defense. It is now a test of whether Paxton’s brand of confrontational conservatism can win beyond the GOP primary — and whether Democrats can finally turn years of optimism about Texas into a statewide breakthrough.
