Russian President Vladimir Putin said this weekend that he believes the war in Ukraine is “coming to an end,” even as battlefield fighting, ceasefire disputes and steep casualty estimates continue to raise doubts about how close either side may be to a final settlement. Putin made the remarks after Moscow’s Victory Day events, saying he was open to discussions about future European security arrangements, while also repeating Russia’s position that any meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy should come only after a broader peace deal is already ready to be finalized.
The comments came during one of Russia’s most scaled-down Victory Day parades in years. The annual May 9 event, traditionally used by the Kremlin to display military power, took place without the usual tanks, missiles and heavy weapons on Red Square. Russian officials cited security concerns and the operational situation, while Putin said heavy weapons were needed on the battlefield in Ukraine.
The timing also followed a U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire announced by President Donald Trump, who said the pause would run from May 9 through May 11 and include a prisoner exchange of 1,000 prisoners from each country. Reuters reported that the talks remain stalled over Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, where Moscow wants Kyiv to withdraw from areas Russia has not captured, while Ukraine has said it will not cede land it still controls.
Despite Putin’s public suggestion that the war may be nearing its end, Kremlin officials have been more cautious. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said reaching a peace agreement would be a “very long road,” and another Kremlin aide, Yuri Ushakov, said negotiations may resume but gave no clear timeline. Ukrainian officials also reported continued Russian drone strikes and battlefield clashes during the ceasefire period, while Russia said it had shot down Ukrainian drones.
The war, now in its fifth year since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, has produced enormous military losses. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated in January 2026 that Russian forces had suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties, including killed, wounded and missing personnel, through December 2025. CSIS estimated Ukrainian forces had suffered roughly 500,000 to 600,000 casualties, including killed, wounded and missing, with 100,000 to 140,000 fatalities.
Other recent Western and European-linked estimates show a similar scale of Russian losses, though casualty figures remain difficult to independently verify. Russia Matters, which tracks published estimates, cited Western officials reported by Bloomberg estimating 1.2 million Russian casualties as of February 2026, and also cited the Netherlands’ Military Intelligence and Security Service estimating about 1.2 million Russian permanent losses, including more than 500,000 dead. The same Russia Matters review noted estimates for Ukraine ranging from Zelenskyy’s lower public figure to outside assessments of roughly 500,000 to 600,000 killed, wounded or missing.
For now, Putin’s statement appears less like a confirmed breakthrough and more like a political signal delivered during a sensitive national event. The battlefield remains largely grinding and costly, Russia still has not captured the full Donbas region, and the two sides remain far apart on territory, security guarantees and the terms of any final agreement. While the ceasefire and prisoner exchange may create a narrow diplomatic opening, verified reporting shows that the war’s core disputes remain unresolved.
